What would a brokered national convention look like?

Mocked as conspiratorial nonsense just months ago, the specter of a "brokered convention" now seems a realistic possibility to seasoned political observers.

Even former presidential hopeful Gov. Scott Walker has predicted that the nominee will be neither Donald Trump nor Sen. Ted Cruz -- and he wasn't talking about Gov. John Kasich, either.

With this plausible scenario in mind, Caldwell County Republican Party Chairman Kathy Haigler reviewed the ins and outs of what it would take for a convention to go from simply nominating the ballot favorite in Cleveland to the body of national delegates selecting their own presidential contender after multiple rounds of arm-twisting and parliamentary maneuvering.

Her presentation, "Understanding Contested and Brokered Conventions for the Republican Party" -- as presented at the Caldwell County Republican Women meeting on Monday -- is included in the YouTube clip above. Travis County's own TJ Scott makes a cameo!

Here are a few notes:

• Senatorial District conventions would be wise to put much emphasis on the state delegate selection process given the high stakes we're facing in this year's presidential election.
• Texas will be able to send 155 delegates and 155 alternates to the National Convention in Cleveland in June. Of that 155, 108 will be elected from Congressional Districts and 47 will be at-large or automatic.
• If a candidate scores 1,237 national delegates, they "clinch" the nomination. A contested or brokered convention occurs when no candidate reaches that "magic number."
• As of Monday, Trump needs 60 percent of the remaining delegates from states that have not yet voted in order to reach 1,237.
• In Texas, Cruz won 62 percent and Trump 38 percent, which equates to 29 at-large delegates for Cruz and 18 for Trump.
• National convention Rule 40 requires that a candidate win a majority of delegates in at least eight states/territories to be considered a nominee. Trump has exceeded and Cruz has barely met that criteria, but Rubio won three primaries/caucuses and Kasich one. This eight-state threshold was raised from five in 2012 to appear more unified for Mitt Romney. This means that it's likely going to be a Cruz vs. Trump showdown. But ...
• Rules are meant to be CHANGED. Haigler said he who knows the Constitution, state election codes, RNC rules, RPT rules, and even Robert's Rules of Order the best is likely to prevail. These are the people who will move to change the rules to their advantage and keep an ace up their sleeves during voting.
• On the first round of voting, delegate votes automatically go to their pledged candidate (unless they are uncommitted or their candidate has "released" their delegates). On second and subsequent "ballots" is where the haggling begins and a convention may truly be considered "brokered."
• On the second round of voting (aka. second ballot) if a pledged delegate's candidate did not get at least 20 percent of the vote, they are considered released. On the third ballot, all delegates are considered released and are free to support whomever they choose.
• As of Monday, the delegate breakdown was as follows: Trump, 678 delegates; Cruz, 423; Rubio, 164; Kasich 143; Carson, 8; Bush, 4; Fiorina, 1; Huckabee, 1; Paul, 1; and not-yet-allocated, 1,049. It's still anyone's game.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE

• Haigler advises keeping a close eye on who is elected to represent Texas in the Electoral College. Each Congressional District may elect one Elector. It takes 270 electors to win the presidency.
• There have been 157 "faithless electors" in U.S. history, and currently 21 states do not have laws that punish electors who go off the reservation and support anyone other than their pledged candidate. Fully 29 states have laws to bind electors to their pledges, but they have never been enforced.
• In the event that there is no clear winner in the Electoral College, the U.S. House picks the President from among the three top candidates.