Are Democrats finally eclipsing Republican voters in Texas? Some things to consider

It's common political chatter by now that there's no real path to controlling the country without taking Texas. 

Democrats know this, and have been pouring increasing amounts of national resources into taking the Lone Star State, which hasn't seen a Democratic statewide official in what is going into a fourth decade.

U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races have tended to become hopeful battlegrounds, with Dems lining up every two years behind a rising star such as Beto O'Rourke as a seemingly solo standard-bearer.  In 2020, O'Rourke as a contender for Governor brought in 1,869,419 Democrat Primary voters as compated to 1,934,047 Republican Primary voters. That's about as close as it has been in recent memory.

Now observers on the Left are hopeful their moment to finally eclipse Republicans has come, with Democrats out-voting their GOP compatriots during Week 1 of early primary voting. Whether that spike sustains itself for a second week has yet to be seen.

The Travis County Repbublican Party was quick to pick up on this phenomenon, noting in a recent email communique that Democrat voters have totaled 52,917, compaed to 13,503 Republican Primary voters in the county. But the blueberry's numbers may not translate well to the rest of Texas.

"That's a 5:1 difference here in Travis, with the Dems out-voting GOP voters only ever so slightly on the statewide level. The Democrats in Texas are enjoying a 'moment' in the form of a spike in turnout fueled by continued disdain for our President (not uncommon for a midterm primary) and protests against legal immigration enforcement processes. They also have some high-profile fights on their hands. In short: They're running hot."

The Travis GOP is claiming their voters are "trickling" to the polls at the usual rates, while anti-ICE protests and the usual anti-Trump forces are fueling Democrat gains.

"One of our supporters told us she's too busy getting her IRS tax forms together and missed Week 1 of early voting! Another told us (on a more serious note) she was part of a groundswell of parents applying for a Texas Education Freedom (school choice) account! Still others told us they prefer to vote on election day. Whatever the reasons, the media and liberal analysts are chomping at the bit and falsely 'predicting' a blue Texas in 2027. While we don't believe their spin on the actual facts, it's still very much important that we do not become over-confident or "Trumpfortable" with all the winning coming from the White House that we forget about casting a vote in races here at home ..."

The county party urged voters to focus on finding people who will cast an informed ballot and not encouraging "low information" or "drive-by" voting.

For some comparison, here are the last few U.S. Senate Primary vote totals, per year:

2024: Dem 967,503; Rep 2,239,958
2020: Dem 1,869,419; Rep 1,934,047*
2018: Dem 1,042,914; Rep 1,549,573
2014: Dem 510,009; Rep 1,314,556
2012: Dem 497,487; Rep 1,406,648

*The 2020 Democratic Primary had a runoff with 961,973 additional votes.