While there's no shortage of speculation on that subject, we thought it might help to present the remainder of the GOP Primary season incredibly simple to understand. See below for our handy table.
Remaining States (as of 4/27/16), how many GOP delegates are at stake, and some notes:
IN 57 (No Kasich per deal with Cruz)
WV 34 (Heavily favors Trump)
OR 28 (No Cruz per deal with Kasich)
CA 172 (Fiorina as VP pick may help Cruz)
MT 27 (May favor Cruz)
NJ 51 (Heavily favors Trump)
NM 24 (No Cruz per deal with Kasich)
SD 29 (May favor Cruz)
__________
TOTAL: 422 delegates left.
Our shooting-from-the-hip analysis:
Donald Trump needs over half of that total (287 delegates) to win. However, if Trump sweeps West Virginia and New Jersey, all he'll need is to capture around 40 percent of the remaining delegates to get the "magic number" of 1,237.
There is a path forward -- but it's a narrow and rocky one. John Kasich's deal with Ted Cruz may help each campaign to concentrate on beating Trump, and Cruz' super-early selection of Carly Fiorina as a running mate may enable him to seriously drain Trump's strength in the Golden State.
And then there's Republican National Convention in Cleveland ... but that's a whole other blog post for another time! But for now, here's a Red State contributor's take on how well the Cruz delegate game has been going. For starters, Cruz supporters took 65 of the 94 delegate slots available Tuesday evening:
http://www.redstate.com/diary/creinstein/2016/04/22/290282
(HT: Will Lutz, Matt Mackowiak, and Don Rasmussen for the brainstorming.)
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