According to the Austin American-Statesman, allegations of Dukes' use of staff for unpaid, mandatory "charity" work is under investigation:
The Texas Tribune in February first reported that the state auditor’s office was investigating ... after former staffers of her legislative office filed complaints.
The auditor’s office recently contacted prosecutors with Travis County’s Public Integrity Unit, which has opened a criminal probe on the matter ... Prosecutors are expected to issue subpoenas to current or former Dukes staffers soon ...
Read more: http://www.mystatesman.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/sources-prosecutors-investigating-state-rep-dawnna/nq6QmThe Tracker reported on this on Feb. 9, taking note of Dukes' frequent absences from committees and the House floor, as well as the local media's near-ignorance of Republican challenger Gabriel Nila's campaign.
Libertarians have managed to shave as much as 13-16 percent off Dukes' total in previous election years. Kevin Ludlow finished the highest in a hard-fought campaign in 2014 (complete with I-35 frontage billboard and GOTV efforts) tailored to the district's liberal voters, including an appeal to civil rights protections of homosexual couples and an insistence that life does not begin at conception. But all that strategy and effort gave him 2-3 percent over previous, more typically Libertarian, shoestring campaigns. And he's running again this year with the same appeal to liberal voters.
How a Republican with conservative economic beliefs and a moderate social platform (Nila is for marijuana decriminalization, for example) will fare is anyone's guess, as there hasn't been a GOP challenger in recent memory. The Travis GOP is seeing an increase in the number of minority groups engaging the local party, which may bode well for a Hispanic candidate flying under the Republican banner during a presidential election year in which a Hispanic last name may lead the ticket (Ted Cruz). A countywide Republican candidate can win anywhere from 38-42 percent of the vote against a Democrat with a relatively clean record (though Dukes' district only contains eastern Travis County).
With Dukes' reputation taking a severe hit, Nila could add to the existing base of Republican support any number of disaffected former Dukes-backers.
Even if Dukes faces criminal charges or an indictment, it's an uphill battle for Nila as Dukes has about $17,500 in her PAC and the capacity to raise more if local Democrats see her district as endangered.
Dukes represents House District 46, which contains parts of East Austin, North Austin, Northeast Austin, Manor and Pflugerville.
UPDATES: Correction made to cash-on-hand amount per Texas Ethics Commission filings.
Why do you suppose the District 46 map looks like it does. Regardless of the Democrat complaining about redistricting maps, the District 46 map cuts into Pflugerville just enough to catch the street she lives on. Google search, Texas District 46 map, and see for yourself.
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