"Presidents typically face strong headwinds in midterm elections ... Even President Obama – who was elected President by historic margins – lost 6 U.S. Senate seats and 63 U.S. House seats during the 2010 midterm elections."
That's what a White House communique said about last night's "blowout" when Democrats trounced Republicans in many jurisdictions around the nation, particularly in Virginia. We agree that it's the burden of the party in power to prove that it can deliver on its promises, and in politics that can often be difficult as compromise is key to getting legislation passed. That's why mid-term elections are tough on the party in power nationally.
This is primarily a local blog (Travis County and Central Texas) so we'll defer to the seasoned analysts at Town Hall for more of what the Nov. 7 election means on the national scene or whether it's a portent of things to come in 2018. (Meanwhile, we're here licking our wounds on losing three school bond opposition campaigns.)
There are three factors worth considering if we wish to not only Keep Texas Red but continue making gains throughout the Trump Administration -- as well as to put up any serious challenge to Austin-area Democrats.
1) The Left has its own "tea party" now. The Left has their own Tea Party-like network in the form of Antifa, Indivisible, Flippable, etc. Do not discount this: Lefty candidates are winning without the Democrats lifting a finger, such as Populist Democrat Lee Miller who won handily last night despite being abandoned by the donkey party leadership: http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/after-pledging-an-aggressive-race-against-gop-del-jackson-miller/article_dfd7783b-de44-557e-82c7-b6bc439656f1.html
2) Local liberal races are relying on out-of-state money to win. If the liberals can't win big in 2018 then that means the Democrats will have no choice but to pander toward the Center in future election cycles. To stave off this fear, there was some serious cash being dumped across the country to promote the possibility of winning in 2018, even in local and state lege races. Case in point: this race in which $60 was spent PER VOTE to help a transgender candidate win election. And it apparently worked: https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/transgender-woman-beats-bathroom-bill-sponsor-in-virginia-house-race
3) The GOP base isn't as excited as it could be. The Left is charged up and unified in their hatred for President Trump, and that is translating to defeats of Republicans across the country. Exhibit A: Republican Gov. Ed Gillespie was defeated by nearly 9 percentage points. Though Gillespie was hailed as a "unifier," his conciliatory tone did not enthuse our people enough to counter spirited liberal opposition (especially Trump supporters who feel alienated by him). He did not generate more new voters, nor convince enough liberals to swing Republican. The more national GOP leadership stalls on repealing Obamacare and other publicly recognizable conservative reforms the less excited Republican voters will be to take action other than just punching a ballot (if they do so at all). Candidates who energize voters to bring in their friends, neighbors, co-workers and families are the ones who win.
Nov. 7 was not the end of the conservative movement by any means, but if we don't stand firm on Republican values and act on them (in a way that voters across the country understand), it will be increasingly difficult to rise against increased organization and special interest fundraising from the Left in 2018.
This is a dumb question (which you know)
ReplyDeleteVirginia, since 1980, has always elected a governor of the opposite party of the most recently elected president (except 2013).
When Obama won the largest Democrat landslide since LBJ, the GOP won the governor's race in VA by 17 points.
Though the expansion of FedGov under Obama may have done permanent damage to the Virginia (and only Virginia) electorate, there is no reason to expect that this loss by a Bush clone is a harbinger of anything but Bush loss.